Delta Politics today…

Undeniable facts about Delta State politics

1. Delta State is PDP
2. APC does not have a strong foothold yet in Delta State
3. The three Senatorial zones in Delta State (under PDP) have an understanding to rotate the governorship in view of the heterogeneous composition of the state and its attendant tension
4. Delta Central and Delta South have each had their turn of 8 years each
5. Delta North has had only four years (with Governor Okowa) and wants to complete its turn for another four years. PDP Delta Central and Delta South agree with this in line with its zoning agreement
6. Rotation or zoning is imperfect and has never been the best test of democracy, but it serves a great purpose and calms nerves and tempers in a heterogeneous society where ethnic rivalry is rife. One good reason there has been less inter-ethnic tension in Delta State since 1999. Even Nigeria as a country has some kind of unwritten zoning agreement.
7. APC wants to take over Delta State in 2019, but it has gone ahead to put aside zoning. It has given its governorship ticket to Delta Central. This has made members of APC Delta North to feel sidelined in the party.
8. In Delta State ethnic sentiment is strong and voting is largely based on such sentiment, so any party that wants to win in the state must put that into consideration otherwise it will not make any headway in the state. If you want to beat an incumbent, you must play the game of the incumbent and be better at it.
9. The zoning understanding in Delta State is more in the psyche of the diverse people than the political parties. In other words, it goes beyond parties.
10. Unless APC high command revisits the crisis generated by its Delta State governorship primaries, which was conducted without availing all the aspirants equal level playing ground, there would be a protest vote from Delta North APC members in favour of PDP governorship candidate Ifeanyi Okowa. The vote would be based on sentiment, not politics, because as is often said, “all politics is local”.

Secondly, it will be foolhardy to assume that PDP Delta Central and Delta South will not vote Okowa. With the power of incumbency and massive resources at his disposal, Okowa would disburse political patronage to both zones, and by so doing, divide the vote of the two zones while securing a bloc vote from Delta North.

And of course, it will also be unwise to assume that chieftains and members of PDP Delta Central and Delta South would not want to retain the patronage they are gaining from Governor Okowa. Surely, they will not trade it for an unknown, even if that unknown is one of their own.

Some might argue that with former Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan now in APC, victory is sure for APC. Let me remind those who think so that even as incumbent governor, Uduaghan could not defeat Okowa when he supported Tony Obuh against then governorship aspirant Ifeanyi Okowa. Now Okowa has power and Uduaghan is out of power, how do you honestly think it will go?

My suggestion is that APC should allow Delta North have a one-term of four years to balance it off with other zones, and then start on a clean slate. This is not the best arrangement, of course but it sure solves two problems. One, it guarantees APC victory, and two, it sustains the relative inter-ethnic peace currently existing in the state.

Anyone who disagrees with this post should puncture it with superior argument or facts.

Meanwhile, if things remain as they are today, then congratulations in advance to Governor Okowa. APC has itself to blame.