PDP: Still on a long thing

With Ike Uche Secondus emerging as PDP national chairman, the party has lost a vital segment of the Nigerian political group – the south-west – and the party has further shrunk into a regional party. It will surely hurt the party in time to come.

The calculation of Wike, the new kingmaker of course, is that the south-west would be given the Vice President. That is hardly a proposition that would satisfy the south-west PDP because the region already has that in APC with the prospect of producing the President in 2023. A vice presidential slot in PDP does not guarantee support from the south-west PDP because a northern presidential candidate in 2019 is not likely to defeat Buhari. Which means the region is not even sure of producing Vice President.

Even at that, the person angling to be Vice President – Ayo Fayose – is not exactly the darling of the region. Fayose cannot deliver vote beyond Ekiti State. But he is not likely to agree to concede the slot. Any attempt not to pick him for Vice President would further tear the party apart.

All things considered, it is a dicey situation for PDP. I foresee the aggrieved south-west PDP doing any of the following:

1. Table a stiff demand before PDP national exco, the fulfilment of which would be a precondition for their support in the 2019 presidential election
2. Teaming up with the remnants of the Modu Sheriff faction to either join the APC or float another party with Raymond Dokpesi’s APDP and other willing smaller parties. This of course would not necessarily be with an eye for 2019 but simply to make a point and play the spoiler.

But it is still possible that some form of arrangement could be engineered before 2019 to pacify the south-west PDP but Wike, Secondus and Atiku are hardly the trio to procure such a deal that would be acceptable. For starters, Wike and Secondus do not have the political sagacity, skill and finesse. And Atiku’s predilection to deploy money to get his way would be regarded as an insult by a people politically and intellectually sophisticated.

When the chips are down the south-west would not fail to remember Wike’s insult and Atiku’s role in seeking to embarrass one of their own – Obasanjo – to whom he was deputy. Never mind that they never gave Obasanjo 100 percent support. Take it or leave it, OBJ is still very influential in the south-west.

Whatever happens, the PDP convention rather than provide opportunity to mend and rebuild the party has further divided it. The party is the loser for it and the APC is further strengthened, except by some strange coincidence the latter fluffs the opportunity.

Those expecting massive defection from APC to PDP should perish the thought. Buhari has no credible challenger in 2019.

NOTE:

I have heard it muted in some quarters that Wike’s $10,000 to each of PDP northern delegates to the convention was actually Atiku’s cash to buy the party’s 2019 presidential ticket. True or not, it does not solve the problem for PDP.