Stranded in Dubai: The Hidden HR Cost of a Distant War

By Frank Ofili

Two months ago, my firm proudly recruited an expatriate professional to head one of our most strategic business units. His resumption date was fixed for 9 March 2026. Everything had been carefully planned—onboarding schedules, accommodation, and strategic meetings to introduce him to the team.

But today, instead of sitting in his new office in Nigeria, he is stranded in a hotel room in Dubai.

The reason has nothing to do with our organization. It has everything to do with geopolitics. The closure of airspace across parts of the Middle East due to the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran has disrupted international travel routes. Our new recruit cannot fly in.

While he waits in Dubai, another ripple of the conflict is already hitting us back home. In Nigeria, the pump price of petrol has surged to about ₦1,300 per litre. The consequences are immediate and visible:

• Fewer vehicles on the roads
• Higher transportation fares
• Escalating prices of goods and services
• Declining employee attendance at work
• Rising absenteeism

This situation illustrates a powerful reality of the modern economy: wars are no longer regional events; they are global labour shocks.

From an HR perspective, the conflict in the Gulf region offers an important lesson on how geopolitical crises can affect the workforce far beyond the battlefield.

1, The Globalization of Workforce Disruption

In today’s interconnected world, labour mobility depends heavily on stable travel routes, energy supply, and global logistics. When conflict erupts in a strategic region such as the Middle East—home to critical oil infrastructure and global aviation corridors—the impact spreads quickly.

Organizations may experience:

• Delayed international recruitment (as in the case of our Dubai-stranded recruit)
• Travel restrictions affecting expatriates and business operations
• Supply chain disruptions affecting production schedules
• Energy price shocks increasing operational costs
• Transportation challenges for employees

For HR leaders, geopolitical crises are no longer abstract foreign policy issues. They are workforce management challenges.

2. Energy Shocks and the Worker’s Wallet

One of the first economic casualties of conflict in the Gulf region is energy stability. Oil supply concerns trigger global price spikes, which quickly translate into higher fuel prices in import-dependent countries.

For workers, this means:

• Higher daily commuting costs
• Reduced disposable income
• Increased stress and financial pressure
• Lower productivity and morale

For employers, the result often includes:

• Increased absenteeism
• Tardiness
• Demand for wage adjustments
• Reduced workforce availability

When transport costs double, showing up for work becomes an economic decision for many employees.

3. Talent Mobility Under Geopolitical Risk

The situation with our stranded expatriate highlights another emerging HR risk: geopolitical disruption of global talent mobility.

Organizations increasingly rely on international expertise. However, war can suddenly create barriers such as:

• Closed airspace
• Suspended flights
• Visa restrictions
• Security concerns for expatriates
• Insurance and evacuation complications

A recruitment plan that seemed perfectly straightforward two months ago can quickly collapse under geopolitical pressure.

4. Psychological Impact on Workers

Beyond logistics and costs, global conflict also carries psychological effects on employees.

Workers may experience:

• Anxiety about economic uncertainty
• Concerns about job security
• Stress from rising living costs
• Distraction caused by global news and instability

These emotional factors quietly erode workplace engagement and productivity.

What Organizations Must Do

In times of geopolitical disruption, organizations cannot remain passive observers. HR leaders must adopt adaptive workforce strategies.

a. Introduce Flexible Work Arrangements

Where possible, organizations should implement:

• Remote work
• Hybrid schedules
• Flexible start and closing hours

If commuting becomes too expensive, workplace flexibility can protect productivity while supporting employees.

b. Provide Transportation Support

Companies may need to assist workers directly through:

• Transportation allowances
• Staff shuttle buses
• Carpooling initiatives
• Fuel subsidies for critical staff

These measures can significantly reduce absenteeism during fuel crises.

c. Review Compensation Structures

When inflation spikes due to geopolitical shocks, employers should consider:

• Temporary cost-of-living adjustments
• Hardship allowances
• Transport stipends

Even modest interventions can help stabilize employee morale.

d. Strengthen Remote Onboarding Systems

Our stranded recruit in Dubai highlights a crucial HR lesson: physical presence should not be the only path to onboarding.

Organizations should be prepared to:

• Conduct virtual onboarding
• Allow expatriates to start work remotely
• Integrate digital collaboration tools
• Assign interim leadership support

This ensures that strategic hires can begin contributing even before they physically arrive.

e. Develop Geopolitical Risk Plans

HR departments must begin incorporating global risk management into workforce planning.

This includes:

• Monitoring geopolitical developments
• Creating contingency plans for travel disruptions
• Developing emergency relocation protocols
• Diversifying talent pipelines

Workforce strategy must now assume that global disruptions are inevitable.

A Final Reflection

The image of a newly hired executive sitting in a Dubai hotel room, waiting for airspace to reopen, is a powerful metaphor for the modern workplace.

Thousands of kilometres away, Nigerian workers are struggling to reach their offices because fuel prices have soared.

Neither group fired a shot in the Gulf conflict. Yet both are living its consequences.

For organizations, the lesson is clear: In an interconnected world, global crises quickly become HR crises.

The companies that thrive will be those that recognize this reality early—and design workforce policies resilient enough to withstand shocks that originate far beyond their borders.