Russia invasion of Ukraine: Another perspective – by Kelechi Deca

Engaging in full military operations is quite expensive venture. The movement of equipment in last one week has already had a huge toll, not to talk of war.

Even though at 4.7% growth the Russian economy is doing well, but it is not a consequential economy to the global economy. It produces nothing the world buys except natural resources and arms. It is not China.

That’s why even the rise in oil price will bite it as hard as it bites others. It has an 8% inflation at present, that will definitely shoot maybe to 10%, moreso, with more sanctions coming, they will feel the pinch sooner than expected.

Like Nigeria, it is import dependent. Like Nigeria, 80% of the wealth is in the hands of less than 5% of the population. Like Nigeria, most of the wealth are stashed abroad by the oligarchs, and sanctions will hit them. And like Nigeria, they love foreign and expensive goods like it is blood.

While the pains of this war will be equally hard on the west as US is battling rising inflation the assurance of cooperation among EU and NATO will mitigate the pain. Russia is alone.

Turkey has already distanced itself from her. China that acknowledged that Russia has legitimate concerns as at yesterday has applied caution since today. That’s how international politics works. If you defecate in the market Square your friends starts disappearing little by little.

War is a very dicey game. Tables are easily turned when least expected. Events of the next 48 hours will show that things can turn nastier than Putin thought. He knows NATO cannot intervene militarily, but he also knows there’s a price to pay. I think he is showing off a brave face especially with the spate of condemnations even from countries he thought wouldn’t openly condemn him.

Invading Ukraine was a great mistake. Even if he forces a regime change, he knows it will be 2014 all over, and he has no plan to fully occupy Ukraine. This invasion will lead to some outcomes that may not be in his favour even if he ends up annexing the Donbas region.