Nigeria’s “Improving Economy”: When Statistics Clash with Reality

(By Frank Ofili)

In recent months, the Nigerian government has consistently claimed that the economy is improving. Officials point to declining inflation figures, easing prices, and renewed foreign investment as evidence that recent economic reforms are beginning to pay off. On paper, these claims appear encouraging. However, for millions of Nigerians, everyday experience tells a very different story.

Across the country, prices of food, transportation, rent, and basic services remain stubbornly high. Many households report spending a larger share of their income on essentials than ever before. While headline inflation may be reported as “falling,” this does not mean prices are actually decreasing; it often only means that prices are rising more slowly. For citizens already struggling with elevated costs, this distinction offers little relief. A bag of rice or a tank of fuel that doubled in price over the past year does not feel cheaper simply because the rate of increase has slowed.

Unemployment and underemployment also remain major challenges. Official statistics often understate the problem by excluding discouraged workers or by counting informal, low-income activities as “employment.” In reality, many Nigerians are either jobless or trapped in precarious work that does not provide a living wage. Economic growth that fails to translate into decent jobs cannot meaningfully improve living standards.

The cost of doing business further undermines the government’s optimistic narrative. High energy costs, unreliable power supply, multiple taxes, currency volatility, and policy uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on small and medium-scale enterprises. While foreign investment announcements are frequently highlighted, actual inflows remain uneven and concentrated in a few sectors, with limited impact on the broader economy.

This disconnect between official statistics and lived reality echoes the lessons of Darrell Huff’s classic book How to Lie with Statistics. Huff argues that statistics can be technically correct yet deeply misleading when stripped of context or selectively presented. Averages can hide extremes, headline figures can obscure distributional pain, and changes in measurement can create the illusion of progress where little exists. In Nigeria’s case, macroeconomic indicators are often presented without sufficient attention to how ordinary people are affected.

The key issue, therefore, is not that statistics are false, but that they are incomplete. An economy cannot be judged solely by inflation rates, GDP growth, or investment announcements. It must also be measured by purchasing power, job quality, poverty levels, and the real cost of living. Until improvements in official data translate into tangible relief for citizens, claims of economic recovery will continue to ring hollow.

As Huff warned decades ago, numbers should inform public understanding—not be used to mask uncomfortable truths. For Nigeria, honest economic assessment requires listening not only to spreadsheets and charts, but also to the voices and experiences of the people living the economy every day.