Delta North And The Politics of the Smokescreen

(By Frank Ofili)

In the past couple of months, I have been watching, with the corner of one eye, political developments in my Delta North senatorial (Anioma) region of Delta State. Some hustlings currently going on in the region are befuddling.

Since the expiration of Governor Ifeanyi Okowa’s tenure in 2023, political movements across Delta North have taken on a curious rhythm. One of the most visible actors in this post-Okowa landscape has been his former Principal Secretary, Dr. Hilary Ibegbulem, whose growing presence across the senatorial district—largely through philanthropic gestures—has fueled speculation about a possible 2027 senatorial ambition.

On the surface, the signs appear familiar – grassroots outreach, calculated generosity, and the subtle building of political goodwill. In Nigerian politics, such moves rarely occur in a vacuum.

Unsurprisingly, reports have emerged suggesting that Ibegbulem may be preparing to challenge for the Delta North senatorial seat in 2027.

But my reading of the political chessboard suggests that this may be less about Ibegbulem’s personal ambition and more about strategic positioning by his former principal, Ifeanyi Okowa. In plain language, I hardly think Ibegbulem is acting independently. I think he is acting the role of a place-holder or a diversionary figure, subtly holding the field while Okowa recalibrates his next move.

Okowa’s political silence since leaving office has been conspicuous, not accidental. Until recently, the former governor had been navigating the uncomfortable terrain of an EFCC probe, a reality that has understandably encouraged caution rather than confrontation. Then suddenly, without warning, or inkling, came the calculated mass defection of Delta State’s PDP political structure—including Governor Sheriff Oborevwori—into the All Progressives Congress (APC). That move, widely interpreted as a bargaining strategy with the centre, altered the state’s political equation overnight.

With that hurdle seemingly lowered, the question now is not if Okowa will re-emerge politically, but when and how. It did not take long. He soon got appointed as South-South Coordinator of the Renewed Hope Initiative).

Avoiding the Nwoko Factor

One cannot examine this unfolding drama without acknowledging Senator Ned Nwoko, the current occupant of the Delta North senatorial seat. Nwoko is not just an incumbent; he is politically alert, media-savvy, and deeply embedded within the APC’s national power structure.

For Okowa, an early declaration of interest would amount to walking into a trap—triggering resistance, counter-mobilization, and intra-party warfare long before the starting gun of 2027 is fired. In this context, Ibegbulem’s visibility serves a tactical purpose: it keeps the political temperature high while shielding Okowa from premature exposure.

The message is subtle but effective—many aspirants, no clear target.

But can Ibegbulem truly challenge Okowa for Delta North APC Senatorial ticket?

Realistically, the idea of Ibegbulem challenging Okowa for the same APC ticket strains credulity. Nigerian political culture, particularly within patron-client networks, rarely allows such open defiance (the rare exception being Prof Yemi Osinbajo challenging Tinubu for the APC presidential ticket in 2022). Ibegbulem’s political relevance is, by most accounts, inseparable from Okowa’s structure and goodwill. To assume he would confront his benefactor in a high-stakes contest is to ignore the unwritten rules of local power dynamics.

Thus, his current activities may best be understood not as an end in themselves, but as political reconnaissance and soft-ground preparation—testing public mood, mapping loyalties, and keeping opposition guessing.

A Smokescreen Over PDP Territory

Delta North remains, at its core, ideologically sympathetic to the PDP, despite recent elite defections. The sudden migration of the state’s political heavyweights into the APC has not erased grassroots skepticism. For many voters, the defection feels transactional rather than philosophical.

It is within this fragile context that the current political charade unfolds. By flooding the space with multiple signals and actors, the APC—under Okowa’s quiet orchestration—appears intent on confusing the opposition base, diluting resistance, and buying time.

Whether this strategy ultimately succeeds will depend on how long the smokescreen can hold and whether the people of Delta North will accept political realignment driven more by elite survival than popular conviction.

For now, Dr. Hilary Ibegbulem walks the field, shaking hands and cutting ribbons. But behind the scenes, many believe the real player is still watching from the dugout—waiting for the moment when the board is fully set and the risks are lowest.

In Delta North politics, appearances are rarely what they seem.