Edo Guber election postponement : APC own goal

Obaseki/Ize-Iyamu

The problem with precedent is that it can, and is always, used to justify future actions or inactions for good or for ill.

When the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) postponed the 2015 general election from February to March 28 and April 11 2015, there was widespread condemnation of the decision. Not a few, including yours sincerely, cried foul play. President Muhammadu Buhari and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) lampooned the electoral body, claiming that the postponement was a deliberate attempt to disenfranchise the people of the northeast of the country which, apparently, was a strong base of the APC. But the Commission insisted that its decision was based on the advice of the security chiefs and that the adjustment in election timetable was in line with the provisions of the Electoral Act.

Now fast-forward to September 2016. It is surprising to note that the same party that condemned INEC for election postponement less than two years ago when Boko Haram practically held sway in the country, is today supporting the Commission for similar action at a time we are told, by the same party, that Boko Haram has been defeated. Honestly, something is amiss here.

When rumour filtered in that postponement of the Edo Governorship election was imminent, the reason given was the ongoing General Certificate of Education (GCE)  examinations. Few days later, the reason changed. This time it was that security report indicated an imminent breakdown of law and order. And then finally, it is no longer the first and second reason but fear of Boko Haram attack. This is preposterous.

One thing we all know is that Edo State has been relatively peaceful. It has never recorded any Boko Haram attack, and it is not about to witness one now that Boko Haram has been considerably decimated. It is interesting to note that just as all this justification for the poll postponement were flying all over the place, the Governor of the state, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, accused Delta State Governor, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa and his Rivers State counterpart, Nyesom Wike of exporting militants and hoodlums to Edo to disrupt the now postponed election. Of course we all know that both Okowa and Wike are PDP governors.

This is the problem I have with APC. Its propagandist, vuvuzela brand of politics is exactly the reason I have so far stayed away from the party in spite of entreaties from friends to join the party. It is also the reason I have severally advised that the President should be wary of some of his own party men. As far as I am concerned, there is no significant difference between the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the APC. The APC is the exact incarnate of the PDP. Many of those who ruined the PDP are today in the APC mouthing “Change”. But I support President Buhari (and will continue to do so) on his own personal merit, not on the strength of his party, the APC.

"But the APC may have scored a deadly own goal as far as the Edo governorship poll is concerned. When the PDP played the postponement card in 2015, it ended up boosting the popularity of the APC. There is nothing to suggest that same scenario would not play out in Edo State, more so, as both candidates have relatively equal–political strength."

Now let me re-state my personal conviction that there is no reason whatsoever for INEC to postpone the Edo governorship election. The reason given for the decision is hogwash. I am tempted to posit that INEC danced to the dictates of the ruling APC, just like it did to the dictates of the then ruling PDP with regard to the 2015 general elections.  One must note that this culture portends grave danger to our democracy; even as it has strengthened the argument that the head of the electoral umpire should not be appointed by the President.

But it should be obvious to the discerning the real reason the Edo governorship election was postponed.

The first is that since inception, the APC federal government has taken quite some few missteps that have not gone down well with the economy. Exchange rate has gone to the roof and the economy is officially in recession. People are hungry, companies are closing down and unemployment is worsening. Yet in the midst of all this the President and other APC high command landed Edo State in grand style in a presidential aircraft – something that is visibly in contrast with the mood of not only Edo people but the nation at large.

Added to this is the recent comments attributed to two government officials which have largely been considered as insensitive. Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun recently told Nigerians that recession was just a word. This has not gone down well with most Nigerians. Neither has the comment of News Agency of Nigeria’s boss, Bayo Onanuga, to the effect that the claim that there is hunger in the land may have been exaggerated.

The third likely reason the election was postponed, in my opinion, is the rising profile of PDP governorship flagbearer, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu. I have read not a few comments suggesting that Ize-Iyamu floored his APC counterpart, Godwin Obaseki in the guber debate held September 4. He is also said to have won the admiration of many for the way he conducted himself all through the controversy surrounding his eligibility for the election. His support by the wealthy Igbinedion family is also said to be working for him, in much the same way as the barely concealed cold shoulder between Governor Oshiomhole and his deputy, Dr. Pius Odubu.

It is my view that a combination of these, and more, made the APC popularity to slide, warranting the need to postpone the election to enable the party re-strategize.

But the APC may have scored a deadly own goal as far as the Edo governorship poll is concerned. When the PDP played the postponement card in 2015, it ended up boosting the popularity of the APC. There is nothing to suggest that same scenario would not play out in Edo State, more so, as both candidates have relatively equal–political strength.

From the look of things, the only way the Edo guber election would be considered credible is if the outcome favours the PDP candidate, Ize-Iyamu. If it goes the other way, then nothing would make the electorate not to feel that their vote did not count. The APC may have shot itself on the foot.