NIGERIA AT 66: RENEWED HOPE IN HOPELESSNESS

By Frank Ofili

The unfinished business of democracy, leadership and nation-building.

Let me state from the onset that the views expressed in this article are entirely mine and do not necessarily represent those of the World Bank, from where I got much of the materials used. I take full responsibility for any errors, mistakes and/or misrepresentations that might occur.

With that caveat done, we can now turn to how we got to where we are – hope in hopelessness

Sixty-six years after independence, and 27 years into uninterrupted civilian rule, Nigeria must now confront an uncomfortable question:

How did we get here?

When Nigeria became independent in 1960, the future looked remarkably promising. We had oil, gas, fertile land, a vast coastline and an energetic, ambitious population. We had a developing industrial base, a promising educational system, a functioning civil service and infrastructure that supported commerce and connectivity.

We were not a perfect country. Far from it. But there was a sense that we were on our way.

Then came political instability, military coups, a civil war and decades of military rule.

When the military finally returned to the barracks in 1999, Nigerians welcomed democracy with enormous expectations. We believed elected governments would be more accountable. We believed institutions would become stronger. We believed the economy would prosper. Above all, we believed Nigeria would finally begin to fulfil the enormous promise of independence.

Twenty-seven years later, we cannot say that nothing has changed.

Telecommunications have transformed the country. Banking has expanded. Technology and entertainment have become global success stories. Private enterprise has grown. Nigeria has experienced peaceful transfers of presidential power and has undertaken significant economic reforms.

But there is another Nigeria—the Nigeria experienced by the ordinary citizen.

For millions of Nigerians, the promise of democracy remains largely unfulfilled.

The World Bank’s October 2025 Nigeria Development Update, From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home, acknowledged progress in macroeconomic stabilisation but also highlighted persistent poverty, high food inflation and structural barriers preventing economic gains from reaching ordinary Nigerians.

And that brings us to the real question.

It is not whether Nigeria has potential. Everybody knows that Nigeria has potential.

The question is why, after 66 years, so much of that potential has still not translated into a better quality of life for the majority.

At 66, our institutions remain fragile

Perhaps the greatest unfinished business of the Nigerian state is the failure to build institutions that are stronger than the individuals who occupy public office.

When the military finally returned to the barracks in 1999, Nigerians welcomed democracy with enormous expectations. We believed elected governments would be more accountable. We believed institutions would become stronger. We believed the economy would prosper. Above all, we believed Nigeria would finally begin to fulfil the enormous promise of independence.

Democracy is not merely about conducting elections and changing governments.

It is about the supremacy of the Constitution. It is about the rule of law. It is about accountability. It is about institutional independence. It is about making public office subordinate to the institutions of the state rather than turning the institutions of the state into instruments of public office holders.

Yet our political landscape remains heavily dominated by personalities, political godfathers and individual interests.

Political loyalty can sometimes appear to matter more than competence. Institutional independence can be compromised by political considerations. Public appointments can become rewards for loyalty rather than opportunities to deploy competence.

But no president should be bigger than the Constitution.

No governor should be bigger than the state.

And no minister should be bigger than the ministry.

The World Bank has repeatedly identified weak institutions, corruption and limited state capacity among the obstacles to Nigeria’s development.

This is not merely an abstract political problem.

When institutions are subordinated to individuals, the consequences are felt in the economy, in justice, in public confidence, in investment and in the ability of government to implement policies consistently.

A country cannot build a sustainable future on institutions that change character every time the occupant of an office changes.

At 66, insecurity still stalks the nation

From terrorism in the North-East to banditry and kidnapping in the North-West, communal violence in parts of the Middle Belt and separatist-related insecurity in the South-East, Nigeria continues to face serious security challenges.

The consequences go far beyond the immediate victims.

Farmers are prevented from accessing their farms. Businesses struggle to operate. Communities are displaced. Children are denied access to education. Investors become cautious. Economic activity is disrupted.

The World Bank identifies insecurity as a significant constraint on Nigeria’s economic growth, investment and poverty reduction.

And really, it does not require a World Bank report to understand the basic logic.

A farmer who cannot safely reach his farm cannot produce enough food.

A manufacturer who cannot safely move goods cannot operate efficiently.

A child who cannot safely get to school cannot receive an education.

A business that cannot protect its people and property cannot thrive.

The primary responsibility of government is the protection of lives and property.

Without security, even the best infrastructure, agricultural, educational and economic programmes will struggle to achieve their full potential.

At 66, we still struggle to feed ourselves

Nigeria is blessed with enormous agricultural resources. Yet food insecurity and high food prices remain major concerns.

Our farmers contend with insecurity, inadequate mechanisation, poor storage, limited irrigation and transportation difficulties. The result is predictable: inadequate food supply, post-harvest losses and rising prices.

Democracy is not merely about conducting elections and changing governments.

The World Bank’s October 2025 Nigeria Development Update noted that high food inflation and widespread poverty continue to undermine household welfare despite improvements in some macroeconomic indicators.

This should trouble us.

A country with Nigeria’s agricultural potential should be able not merely to feed its people but to build a productive agricultural economy that supplies raw materials to industries, creates employment and generates export revenue.

Agriculture must therefore move beyond campaign speeches and political promises, both of which have become hollow rituals.

It must become a properly funded economic priority supported by technology, security, irrigation, mechanisation, processing facilities, storage and reliable access to markets. We cannot continue to import what we have the capacity to produce.

At 66, unemployment and poverty threaten our future

Every year, millions of young Nigerians enter the labour market looking for opportunities.

Many graduates struggle to find gainful employment. Others accept precarious jobs that offer little financial security, limited career development and hardly enough income to meet basic needs.

The World Bank’s May 2025 Nigeria Development Update stressed the need to generate more and better jobs at scale and make economic growth more inclusive.

This is particularly important for a country with such a large and youthful population.

Perhaps one of the clearest signs of our development challenge is the number of Nigerians, especially young professionals, looking beyond our shores for opportunities.

They are not necessarily leaving because they hate Nigeria.

Many are leaving because they want better wages, better security, better healthcare, better opportunities and a better quality of life.

A country cannot sustainably develop when a significant proportion of its most energetic and ambitious citizens are constantly looking for an exit.

Economic growth must therefore be measured by more than GDP figures, foreign reserves and fiscal indicators.

We must also ask:

How much does the average Nigerian earn? What can that income buy? How many decent jobs are being created? Can an ordinary family afford food, housing, healthcare, transportation and education?

That is where economic statistics meet human reality.

At 66, healthcare and infrastructure remain major concerns

A functional healthcare system should be accessible and affordable to citizens regardless of their social or economic status.

Yet millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with the cost and availability of essential medical care.

The system faces shortages of equipment, inadequate funding, uneven access to primary healthcare and the continuing migration of medical professionals.

The World Bank has repeatedly identified weaknesses in Nigeria’s human capital, including healthcare and education, as major impediments to long-term development.

Infrastructure is another unfinished story.

There was a time when travelling from Lagos to Benin could take approximately three hours. There was a time when young men rode motorcycles from Lagos to the eastern part of the country for their annual Yuletide cerebrations. Of course, the roads were top grade then. Today, because of road traffic and other infrastructure deficiencies, the same journey can take days. Only recently, commuters from Lagos to Benin City spent close to 48 hours on the road.

Our roads, railways, electricity supply and public transportation systems have not developed at the pace demanded by our growing population and expanding economy.

The World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update quoted above highlighted electricity and transportation infrastructure gaps as important constraints on productivity and business growth, emphasising the need for greater investment in infrastructure, human capital and public services.

And the questions are obvious. What is the value of an industrial policy when manufacturers must spend heavily to generate their own electricity? What is the value of agricultural production when farmers cannot efficiently move their produce to markets? What is the value of economic growth when the infrastructure required to sustain it remains inadequate?

Infrastructure is not a luxury. It is the foundation upon which a productive economy is built.

At 66, corruption and political patronage persist

Corruption remains one of Nigeria’s most stubborn development challenges. It undermines public trust, distorts procurement, weakens institutions and diverts resources from essential services.

There was a time when travelling from Lagos to Benin could take approximately three hours. There was a time when young men rode motorcycles from Lagos to the eastern part of the country for their annual Yuletide cerebrations. The roads were top class then. Not any more

Successive administrations have established anti-corruption agencies, introduced reforms and announced measures intended to improve transparency and accountability.

Yet corruption persists. That tells us something important.

Laws and institutions, by themselves, are not enough. They require consistent enforcement, institutional independence and genuine political commitment.

Political patronage is another problem.

When loyalty is rewarded above competence, governance suffers. When public office is seen primarily as a route to personal enrichment rather than public service, the social contract between government and citizens begins to collapse.

And increasingly, Nigerians are confronted with allegations of corruption against elected and appointed public officials, as well as persons closely connected to them.

The concern is not merely that allegations are made, rather it is whether such allegations are investigated thoroughly, transparently and without fear or favour.

Where public officials appear to live lifestyles that are difficult to reconcile with their legitimate sources of income, citizens naturally ask questions.

Those questions deserve credible answers.

Investigations into allegations of wrongdoing must not become political theatre. Nor should accusations automatically become convictions.

Due process must determine guilt. But public office must also come with a higher standard of accountability. The real challenge is to build a system in which accountability is not selective, public resources are transparently managed and the law applies equally to everyone.

At 66, the cost of governance is becoming difficult to defend. This is another uncomfortable conversation Nigeria must have.

At all levels of government, the cost of governance has become a matter of growing public concern. This is particularly striking because the current administration came into office in 2023 promising to drastically reduce the cost of governance.

The question, therefore, is not whether government should spend money. Of course, government must spend money.

The question is whether the enormous resources devoted to maintaining the machinery of government are producing commensurate value for the people. A poor country cannot indefinitely maintain the habits of a rich country.

When millions struggle to afford food, when young people cannot find jobs, when hospitals lack essential equipment and when businesses battle unreliable infrastructure, government must constantly ask whether every expenditure is necessary, productive and defensible.

The issue is not about denying public officials the legitimate facilities required to perform their duties.

It is about proportionality. It is about priorities. It is about whether public expenditure reflects the economic realities of the people who ultimately finance the state.

Governance should not become an industry unto itself.

Government exists to serve the people, not to become the biggest consumer of the resources meant for the people.

So, how did we get here?

Nigeria’s present condition cannot reasonably be blamed on one administration or one political party. Our problems are cumulative.

They are the consequences of decades of military rule, weak institutions, policy inconsistency, corruption, inadequate investment, poor implementation and political decisions that have too often prioritised short-term interests over long-term national development.

The return to democracy in 1999 created an opportunity to reverse many of these trends.

But there have been genuine achievements and significant economic reforms that seem to suggest improvement in macroeconomic indicators.

The World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update acknowledges improvements in inflation, external balances and economic growth while warning that household incomes have yet to recover fully and poverty remains high.

That distinction is important. Macroeconomic improvement is not the same thing as improved living standards. A country can record better economic indicators while families continue to struggle. Economic stabilisation is necessary.

But it must ultimately translate into better public services, decent employment, improved purchasing power and greater economic security.

Otherwise, the numbers remain numbers.

And what about us—the citizens?

Government must accept its responsibility. But citizens also have a responsibility too.

We must learn to demand accountability beyond partisan, ethnic, religious and regional loyalties.

We cannot condemn corruption when it is committed by our political opponents and defend it when committed by our political allies.

We cannot demand good governance from those we support while excusing the same behaviour when it comes from our side.

Nation-building requires something bigger than political loyalty.

It requires a commitment to the common good. Nigeria cannot be rebuilt by governments alone.

It must be rebuilt by institutions, leaders, businesses, professionals, civil society and citizens who understand that the country belongs to all of us.

 

The verdict at 66

At 66, Nigeria has no shortage of policies. We have no shortage of political parties. We have no shortage of elected officials, committees, commissions and development plans.

What remains in question is our ability to translate all these into tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.

We cannot continue blaming every present difficulty on the military era, previous administrations or external economic conditions.

Those factors matter, but successive civilian governments have now had considerable time and opportunity to strengthen institutions, improve infrastructure, secure the country and build a productive economy.

The unfinished business is therefore ours.

Nigeria deserves hospitals that save lives.

It deserves roads that connect communities.

It deserves schools that prepare young people for the future.

It deserves security that allows farmers to farm and businesses to operate.

It deserves an economy that creates decent jobs.

It deserves institutions that are stronger than individuals.

It deserves a Constitution respected by those who swear to uphold it.

And it deserves leaders who understand that public office is a responsibility, not a privilege to be enjoyed.

At 66, the record of successive administrations raises serious questions about leadership, accountability and the fulfilment of the promises of democracy.

The persistent gap between Nigeria’s enormous potential and the lived reality of its citizens remains perhaps the clearest measure of our unfinished national project.

But perhaps that is where hope comes in.

Hope is not pretending that everything is fine. Hope is refusing to accept that things cannot become better. Hope is looking at the failures of the past and deciding that they must not become the permanent definition of our future.

Nigeria does not need another generation of slogans.

It needs institutions that work.

It needs leaders who are accountable.

It needs citizens who are discerning.

It needs policies that survive beyond political administrations.

It needs a political culture in which competence matters, integrity matters and public interest matters.

We have spent 66 years talking about Nigeria’s enormous potential. Perhaps it is time we stopped talking about potential and started measuring performance.

The real question at 66 is therefore not whether Nigeria can become great.

It is whether we are finally prepared to do the difficult things required to make it great.

The nation cannot afford another generation of unfulfilled promises.

The time to translate our potential into progress is now.

And that, perhaps, is what renewed hope in hopelessness should really mean.

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World Bank reports cited

1. Nigeria Development Update, April 2026 — Economic Stabilisation, Poverty and Household Incomes.
2. Nigeria Development Update, October 2025: From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home — Poverty, Food Inflation and Translating Eonomic Reforms into better living standards.
3. Nigeria Development Update, May 2025: Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth — Jobs, Infrastructure, Inclusive Growth and Human Capital.