Lagos politics: The mistake of 1992 will not happen again

In the days of Lucky Igbinedion as Edo State Governor, he once fell out with his godfather, the Uromi high chief, Mr. Fix It, Tony Aneni. Mr. Fix It roused up members of Edo State House of Assembly and suddenly signatures were being collected for Igbinedion’s impeachment.

Sensing danger, and threat to his second term bid, Igbinedion ran to Uromi and “dobaled” to the high chief. Matter resolved, and Lucky had his second term.

Few years later, an Adams Oshiomhole was somewhere angling around. In 2007 he contested against Igbinedion and Aneni’s handpick, Prof Oserheimen Osunbor for the Edo governorship seat. Osunbor won at the polls in what was considered a most dubious election. Oshiomhole went to court and won. Osunbor quit office. And thus, began the demystification of Aneni’s strong hold on Edo politics.

Fast forward to Lagos 2018. Ambode fell out with his godfather, Ashiwaju Bola Tinubu. Ashiwaju sneezed and all 57 local council chairmen in Lagos gathered and expressed their wish not to have Ambode go for a second term in 2019. A rumour also began flying to the effect the governor was facing impeachment threat from Lagos State House of Assembly. To worsen matters PDP handed Femi Otedola, multi-billion businessman and son of former governor of the state, Michael Otedola, its governorship ticket.

Ambode panicked. And like Igbinedion did in Edo State, Ambode waved a white flag and rallied heavyweights, including President Buhari and Oba of Lagos, to reach out to Ashiwaju.

Rapprochement reached, matters resolved. Ambode will have his second term. And there will be no protest vote of the kind that threw up Michael Otedola as the conservative governor of the state in 1992.

But unlike in the Edo scenario, Femi Otedola is not Oshiomhole. Nor is Ashiwaju an Aneni. Otedola is a money man while Oshiomhole is a street man. Where Otedola would deploy money, Oshiomhole would deploy his street wisdom. Ditto Ashiwaju and Aneni. While the former is politically sagacious, the latter is brutal. Where Ashiwaju would deploy his street sagacity, Aneni would deploy brute force.

But politics is a street game won by masters. I wager that the unfolding Lagos politicking towards 2019 would not play out like the Edo scenario that threw up Adams Oshiomhole as governor. Otedola will either quit the race in honour of his wish not to contest against his fellow Epe man or he would be roundly trounced.

Otedola is actually a big fish, a job man’s dream. The job of whoever convinced him to throw his hat into the ring with PDP ticket under his belt, may have paid handsomely.

But I doubt Lagos is about to shed her progressive toga. The mistake of 1992 will never happen again in Lagos. Not in a long while.